Forex: The euro under pressure with the Covid; EUR / JPY, test of support at 127.94

The safe-haven US dollar is trading against the euro this morning at a level close to its highest level in 16 months, amid growing concern over the impact of the surge in Covid-19 infections in Europe With Austria reimposing full lockdown and Germany planning to do the same, Europe has once again become the epicenter of the pandemic, accounting for half of the world’s cases and deaths.

The greenback was near its highest level since early October against the riskier Australian and Canadian dollars, with commodity-linked currencies also under pressure from the crash in crude oil.

The dollar received additional support thanks to positive comments from Federal Reserve officials Richard Clarida and Christopher Waller, who on Friday suggested that a faster pace of stimulus reduction might be appropriate amid a recovery context. fast and high inflation.

An earlier end to the cutbacks in stimulus raises the possibility of an earlier rise in interest rates. Currently, the market is predicting that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will start raising rates by the middle of next year.

The Australian dollar remains penalized in the short term due to the slowdown in the Chinese economy and the dovish attitude of the Reserve Bank of Australia which weighs on the currency.

This week we will have to follow the decision of the National Bank of New Zealand with operators expecting a rate hike of 50 basis points.

EURO TESTS A SUPPORT RIGHT OF 127.95

The euro against the yen touched support at 127.94 which resulted in profit taking and a rebound. However, the trend remains bearish below the descending 13 and 34 period moving averages. A new test of the support line is therefore possible. Below this level, prices could continue towards the support and psychological level of 125.00.

To ward off this selling pressure, the price rally must exceed the 130.00 high point level of Friday’s long negative candlestick

Evolution of the euro against the yen in daily data:

The great utility of options trading

A financial option is a purchase contract with which both complex and simple strategies can be carried out, as well as used as a hedge for simply bullish or bearish positions of stocks or other financial products (commodities, interest rates, etc.) both long as short term.

Purchase of a Call. Go up in value and go up in profits

If, on the other hand, we think that a security is going to go down in the future, what we do is buy a put. Buying a put gives us an assured sale price at a future date. If we are correct with the price drops of this value, the put premium will rise and we will obtain certain benefits since we have the right to sell the shares at a price higher than the current one. If we make a mistake and the underlying goes up, our losses are limited only to the money we have paid to buy the put. We cannot lose more. The value can go up without limits and our losses are limited only to what we have paid for buying the put option.

Brief description of a financial option

A financial option is a contract of sale. In general, the contract is equivalent to 100 shares for each contract, but this may vary depending on the underlying or market to which its value is derived, be it a commodity, index, future, currency, value, interest rate, etc. The price is agreed in advance and for a certain date in the future.

Some sort of digital options like binary options are versions of simplified options that can be used for very short term speculation, with average returns of 75% to over 500% for the most speculative contracts. You can see some excellent examples of binary options and an explanation of how it works here.

Option trading is very similar to buying shares of a security because we think it is going to go up, or when we sell short (sell without having the securities in the portfolio) shares of a security because we think it is going to go down, with financial options we can also bet due to rises or falls in values. But instead of buying or selling said shares, what we do is buy a contract that allows us, but does not oblige us, to carry out a series of possible actions that include:

  • Buy or sell shares of a security (or other underlying) at an agreed price (strike price) until a maximum future date (expiration or expiration date)
  • Sell ​​our options contract to another trader before the contract expires.
  • Let the contract expire without any additional financial obligation.

With financial options we can carry out both complex and simple strategies, as well as use them as hedges for simply bullish or bearish positions of stocks or other financial products (raw materials, interest rates, etc.) both long and short term.

Why Trade options?

As we have discussed above, investors and traders can trade options for different reasons, but the main advantages of trading with them are:

  • Buying options is much cheaper than buying or selling stock (stocks). We get more leverage with our money
  • With options we can ‘buy time’ to see the development of a market / value that worries us, especially in times of uncertainty and turbulence.
  • Options can protect us from market downturns, securing our initial purchase price. Excellent coverage

For example, if we think that a security is going to trend upward, we can buy a call that gives us a guaranteed purchase price at a future date. If we succeed with the price increases of this security, the premium of the call will rise and success is assured since we have the right to buy the shares at a lower price than the current one. If we make a mistake and the value falls, our losses are simply limited to the money we have spent to buy the call. Nothing more. The value can drop to zero and our losses are limited only to the price of the call.

Purchase of a Call. Go up in value and go up in profits. If, on the other hand, we think that a security is going to go down in the future, what we do is buy a put. Buying a put gives us an assured sale price at a future date. If we are correct with the price drops of this value, the put premium will rise and we will obtain certain benefits since we have the right to sell the shares at a price higher than the current one. If we make a mistake and the underlying goes up, our losses are limited only to the money we have paid to buy the put. We cannot lose more. The value can go up without limits and our losses are limited only to what we have paid for buying the put option.

IMF warns states against the use of private cryptocurrencies

Nevertheless, it is recommended that governments consider using blockchain-controlled money

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns states in its blog about major risks in the course of using private cryptocurrencies as a currency. At the same time, the monetary authorities called for the use of blockchain technology to improve financial services to be considered. A month ago, El Salvador caused a stir because it was the first country in the world to allow Bitcoin as legal tender.

Faster payment transactions

The IMF blog post entitled “Cryptoassets as National Currency? A Step Too Far” https://bit.ly/3i8bRLW states: “New digital forms of money have the potential to enable cheaper, faster payments, financial inclusion improve, increase resilience and competition among payment providers and facilitate cross-border transfers. “

The post also addresses that some nations are considering taking advantage of these benefits with the abbreviation of accepting cryptoassets as either legal tender or even “second (or possibly only) national currency”. IMF experts Tobias Adrian, director of the money and capital markets department, and Rhoda Weeks-Brown, general counsel and director of the legal department, vehemently reject such plans.

Your biggest concern is the volatility of cryptocurrencies. “It is unlikely that cryptoassets will prevail in countries with stable inflation and exchange rates and credible institutions,” argue the IMF authors. “Households and businesses would have very little incentive to price or save in a parallel crypto asset like Bitcoin, even if it were given legal tender or currency status. Their value is simply too volatile and has nothing to do with the real economy. “

Counterproductive choice

This volatility would complicate markets rather than improve them. “If goods and services were priced in both a real currency and a cryptoasset, households and businesses would spend a lot of time and resources deciding what money to hold instead of engaging in productive activities,” warned the IMF -Specialists. Similarly, government revenue would be exposed to exchange rate risk if taxes were quoted in advance in a cryptoasset while spending largely remained in local currency or vice versa. This potential imbalance is damaging macroeconomic stability.

Furthermore, cryptocurrencies would not solve the problems that lead nations to adopt foreign currencies as legal tender. According to the blog post, a country that imports a foreign currency as its own would “import” the credibility of foreign monetary policy and hope to bring its economy and interest rates in line with the international economic cycle. However, both are not possible in the case of widespread acceptance of crypto assets. In addition, it is uncertain who can be held responsible for security incidents or fluctuations in the value of Bitcoin.

“Not advisable abbreviation”

The IMF authors conclude that blockchain-backed currencies issued by central banks can provide cheaper and more comprehensive financial services than private cryptocurrencies. Governments should use new digital forms of money while maintaining stability, efficiency, equality and environmental sustainability. Trying to make existing crypto assets a national currency is an inadvisable shortcut.

New study: Expansion of renewable energies could save billions

1500 new wind turbines are required for climate protection every year
When new wind turbines are to be built, there are often protests. here, however, thousands of new wind turbines will be needed in the coming years, says the energy industry.

The energy association considers around 1500 new wind turbines on land to be necessary up to 2030 in order to be able to achieve climate targets.

“We need the turbo now,” said Kerstin Andreae, General Manager of the Federal Association of Energy and Water Management, At the same time, she called for reforms, for example in species protection, for more areas. In addition, the acceptance for wind turbines must be increased.

According to the Wind Energy Association, only 420 wind turbines were built last year. There are currently around 30,000 wind turbines here. From an industry perspective, the expansion of onshore wind power is hampered by lengthy planning and approval procedures. In addition, there are too few designated areas and many lawsuits for species protection reasons, for example. There are often protests against new wind turbines on site.

Increase acceptance of renewable energies

From the perspective of the Federal Association of Energy and Water Management, an increase in the installed capacity to 100 gigawatts for onshore wind power is required for the 2030 climate targets. At the end of 2020, the installed capacity was around 55 gigawatts. “In order to achieve climate neutrality by 2045, we need an additional 1,500 wind turbines per year by 2030.”, said Andreae. Much will happen through repowering – new wind turbines replace old ones, but the new ones can generate a lot more electricity. Although there are simplifications for planning and approvals, that is not enough.

The acceptance for the expansion of renewable energies must be further increased. The financial participation of local authorities in wind farms is very important. “In my opinion, the importance of local value creation is greatly underestimated,” said Andreae. “We are in an economic phase in which we need a signal to start.” These are also projects in renewable energies.

“Gap between climate goals and the required framework”
Politicians recently raised climate targets. This was also a reaction to the ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court, which basically said: drastic steps to reduce emissions must not be put on the back burner at the expense of the younger generation.

But Andreae criticized: “There is a gap between the climate targets and the required framework. The companies are committed to the goal of climate neutrality. ”The economy no longer discusses whether and when, but how. “But she needs a toolkit in order to achieve the goals. Climate protection needs goals, but it can only come about through investments. ”The energy industry is at the heart of this transformation.

“When it comes to renewable energies, many companies are in the starting blocks. They could implement wind projects, they have strategies for bringing solar energy to the roofs. However, the framework conditions must be improved. ”The decisive factor in renewable energies is the areas. There are too few designated areas. In addition, planning and approval procedures would have to be significantly accelerated.

Agreement with conservationists

Andreae called for reforms. “Species protection is the protection of the species. If we don’t manage the energy turnaround, the negative consequences such as the dryness of the forests and other climate changes will endanger many species as a whole. That means we have to find a regulation that puts the protection of the species in the foreground, but not the protection of each individual bird. ”The Federal Association of Energy and Water Management is in intensive discussions with the nature conservation associations.

From the point of view of companies and the industry, a standardization of species protection law would be helpful, so that there are at least the same regulations in all federal states and not 16 different sets of rules in 16 federal states. The federal states would have to exhaust their leeway for more space. “That doesn’t mean to discuss minimum clearances again, it means to find clever solutions for the urgently needed space.”

The energy transition should create added value

The expansion of offshore wind power and photovoltaics must also be accelerated. “If the increased climate targets can also be achieved, we must all do a real sprint together,” said Andreae. “You no longer do that with simple trainers, you have to use trainers with spikes.”

There would be no energy transition without the expansion of renewable energies. “We have to make it much clearer that the energy transition is a promising future project. The chances are not only that we achieve climate neutrality, but that the energy transition can create additional local value and enable a clean and safe energy supply and the expansion of renewable energies could save billions.

Cryptocurrencies: In the heat of summer, why the price of bitcoin suddenly jumped?

The tech giants’ renewed interest in bitcoin gave the cryptocurrency market a boost on Monday, after weeks of slippage

Tesla, Twitter and maybe even Amazon: The tech giants’ renewed interest in bitcoin gave the cryptocurrency market a boost on Monday, July 26, after several weeks of slippage.

During Asian trading, the price of bitcoin jumped nearly 15% in less than an hour and a half, to reach $ 39,681, a high since mid-June. At around 10:50 a.m. GMT (12:50 p.m. in Paris), bitcoin was worth $ 38,460 (+ 11.5%). No information to date explained the rise, which analysts attributed instead to a series of positive news in recent days.

On Wednesday, US investment fund Ark Invest hosted the “B word,” an event to promote the institutional use of bitcoin. In an online chat, Cathie Wood, boss of Ark Invest, Elon Musk, boss of Tesla and Jack Dorsey, boss of Twitter, reaffirmed their interest in cryptocurrencies.

The intervention of the South African billionaire was particularly eagerly awaited: the eccentric billionaire has often touted the merits of cryptocurrencies, but worried about the impact of bitcoin on the environment.

Remoteness from China

On Wednesday, he announced that Tesla would “very likely” start accepting bitcoin as a payment method again. His concerns are, according to him, lessened by the tightening of Chinese laws against bitcoin “miners”.

The principles underlying bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency, require colossal energy with a carbon footprint comparable to that of a European country like Belgium
These companies, essential to the operation of the decentralized bitcoin network but consuming electricity, will relocate to regions where energy comes from less polluting sources, believes the billionaire. A welcome message for cryptocurrency enthusiasts, struggling recently: while bitcoin remains dizzying 290% year-on-year, it has fallen 40% since its peak reached in mid-April at nearly $ 65,000.

“Purchases have multiplied since the conference” The B Word “last week,” confirms Fawad Razaqzada, analyst at ThinkMarkets. But the cautious market, which moved away from risky assets due to the spread of Covid-19 last week, has kept the cryptocurrency from taking off, adds Susannah Streeter, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Another tech giant has since expressed interest: on Friday, Amazon posted a recruitment ad for a cryptocurrency project manager position. “It will start with bitcoin,” says an anonymous source to the CityAM business daily. “It’s still pure speculation for now,” said Ms. Streeter, an analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Uncertain continuation

While she considers it “likely that more and more large players will accept cryptocurrencies,” she advises investors to place “only a marginal portion” of their portfolio in this rapidly moving sector. “This morning’s effervescent bitcoin price has been exaggerated by a significant number of lost bets,” commented James Bennett of cryptocurrency analyst ByteTree on Twitter.

A moderate initial move upward has caused investors betting on a downside to liquidate their position, which may exacerbate the rise of a financial asset. It remains to be seen in which direction the wind will blow: in recent months, efforts to regulate the decentralized bitcoin market have weighed on the price.

In addition to Chinese efforts to prevent the activity of minors as trading platforms, market regulators in Europe and the United States are stepping up warnings and sanctions. “I remain a bitcoin skeptic, but by going back above $ 34,500”, the cryptocurrency is enjoying a positive trend, said Jeffrey Halley, analyst at Oanda.

THE EUROPEAN STOCK MARKET END ON A CAUTIONARY NOTE

European stock markets ended lower on Tuesday and Wall Street was also moving in the red, penalized by mixed results from companies in Europe and a wait-and-see environment linked to the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, while weights heavyweights in the United States must publish their financial accounts in the evening.

In Paris, the CAC 40 ended down -0.71% to 6,531.92 points. The British Footsie fell by -0.42% and the German Dax fell -0.64%.

The EuroStoxx 50 index lost -0.92%, the FTSEurofirst 300 -0.57% and the Stoxx 600 -0.54%.

The attention of investors is mainly focused on the meeting Tuesday and Wednesday of the Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) of the Fed, after which the central bank could give indications on the high level of inflation and its program. asset repurchases.

In the meantime, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday confirmed its forecast for global economic growth of 6% for 2021, raising its estimates for the United States and the euro zone but revising downwards those for several countries in development, facing a resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic. The forecast for France is 5.8% this year.

IN WALL STREET

At the time of the close in Europe, the Dow Jones was down 1.98%, the Standard & Poor’s 500 by 0.72% and the Nasdaq by 0.42% after all three finished the day before on all-time highs for a second. consecutive session.

Investors are therefore now cautious before the publication in the evening of the results of heavyweights of the rating such as Apple, Microsoft or Alphabet. Amazon will release on Thursday.

For Randy Frederick, head of the Schwab Center for Financial Research, the markets will be on a wait-and-see basis until the publication of some of these results, especially as expectations are high because the results compare to 2020, a full year. COVID-19 pandemic.

Tesla is down more than 3%, despite better-than-expected second-quarter results, as the U.S. automaker said component shortages remained a major cause for concern.

VALUES

In Europe, the session was driven mainly by a salvo of mixed results, although China’s regulatory backlash against several sectors, including education and technology, continued to heckle the markets.

On the Stoxx 600, only three sector indices escaped the slump with very small gains.

Among the companies that published Monday evening, the world number one in luxury LVMH reported an 84% jump in its second-quarter sales organically, to 14.7 billion euros, thanks to the Louis Vuitton and Dior brands . The title, very volatile during the session, however ended down 0.56%.

Dassault Systèmes (+ 1.32%) finished at the top of the CAC 40 after the upward revision of its growth forecasts for this year.

On the SBF 120, Lagardère (+ 8.12%) was driven by its results, while at the other end of the spectrum Worldline (-8.91%) posted the largest drop.

In London, Reckitt Benckiser, at the back of the FTSE, fell 8.43%, also signing one of the biggest pullbacks of the Stoxx 600, along with Randstad (-6.04%) in Amsterdam and Logitech (- 9.86%) in Zurich following the publication of their results.

In mergers and acquisitions, two sources familiar with the matter reported that the owners of Europcar Mobility Group were in advanced negotiations with Volkswagen with a view to the takeover of the first by the second. The French vehicle rental specialist finished with a gain of 3.72%, while the German manufacturer fell 2.13%.

RATE

Pending announcements from the Fed’s meeting, the ten-year Treasuries yield fell four basis points to 1.2344%, a sign of investor caution.

Its German equivalent, a benchmark on the European market, is virtually stable at -0.443%.

CHANGES

The dollar index fell 0.28% against a benchmark basket, while the euro rose above $ 1.18.

OIL

On the oil market, prices are hesitant with a barrel of Brent stable at 74.34 dollars, while that of US light crude fell to 71.63 dollars.

TO BE CONTINUED ON WEDNESDAY:

End of Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, monetary policy release at 8:00 p.m. and press conference at 8:30 p.m.

Currencies: neither the ECB nor the US figures impact the FOREX

The Dollar resumes its ascent with + 0.25% towards 1.1775 / E although the easing of rates is quite comparable on T-Bonds with -3Pts (1.25%) and Bunds (-3Pts to -0.423% ).
The Dollar crumbles by -0.1% against the Yen (whose yield is fixed once and for all at 0.00%) and gains 0.3% against the Swiss Franc at 0.9200%.

The euro experienced some contrasting movements around 2.30pm / 2.45pm before returning to its initial levels, pre-publication of the ECB press release.

The Governing Council revised its forward guidance on interest rates, to ‘underline its commitment to maintain an always accommodating monetary policy in order to reach its inflation target’.

The board expects’ key interest rates to remain at their current levels or at lower levels until inflation reaches 2% well before the end of its projection horizon and sustainably for the rest. of the projection horizon ‘.

He believes that progress in core inflation is sufficiently advanced to be compatible with a stabilization of inflation at 2% in the medium term. This may imply a transitional period of inflation moderately above target.
It is far too early to consider a slowdown in PEPP buybacks, this has not even been discussed.
The ECB anticipates a return to the pre-crisis growth rate in Q1 2022 and is betting on inflation below 2% in 2022.

So far, nothing very much in line with expectations … but there would not have been unanimity on the subject of ‘forward guidance’.

Side US figures, the Dollar is not affected by the increase of +51,000 registrations for unemployment benefits, to 419,000, the consensus was expecting stability.

Finally, the number of people receiving regular benefits stands at 3,236,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the revised level for the week of July 5, which is the lowest level since March 2020.
Resales of existing homes rose 1.4% in the United States in June, according to the National Federation of Realtors (NAR). At 5.86 million units at an annualized rate, they nevertheless came out slightly below expectations.

The NAR specifies that the inventory of unsold homes increased by 3.3% to 1.25 million, or 2.6 months of inventory (-18.3% over 1 year), and that the median price of old homes sold has increased by 23.4% year-on-year, the second largest increase since January 1999.

The Conference Board’s leading indicators are up 0.7% instead of the 0.8% targeted by the consensus (it is therefore quite close).

Forex: Upside potential of 400 pips to be confirmed on EUR USD following yesterday’s rebound

Forex saw several currency pairs post a bullish start to the week yesterday, and EUR USD was one of those that benefited the most from the positive sentiment in the currency market. As the week started around 1.1760 for the Euro Dollar on Sunday evening, the pair climbed to a high of 1.1817 yesterday afternoon, and is holding above the psychological level of 1.18 for now on Tuesday.

Against this backdrop, traders are wondering if the movement will continue today, or whether we should expect a correction in the EUR USD on the forex. Let’s study the fundamental and technical factors to try to answer this question.

Two key statistics in today’s Forex calendar

From a fundamental analysis point of view, it should be noted that today’s economic calendar does not include any important European statistics, but will instead feature two key US indicators.

Investors in the currency market will in fact wait for June’s US durable goods orders at 2:30 p.m. The consensus of economists foresees an increase of 0.8% for main orders, after + 0.3% previously.

At 4:00 p.m., the forex market will then turn its attention to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. Economists expect the index to fall to 123.9 points for July, from 127.3 in June.

In addition, it will be recalled that the two-day Fed meeting starts today, with a press release scheduled for tomorrow at 8 p.m. and a press conference by Jerome Powell which will begin 30 minutes later.

Thus, some restraint could be observed on Forex on Tuesday, investors awaiting the Fed’s conclusions to take a more frank position on currencies.

What is the technical background on EUR / USD?

Although the chart profile of the Euro Dollar has improved markedly with yesterday’s rise, there are still some hurdles to overcome before we can bet on a lasting upside to the worst in forex.

The EUR / USD pair broke above a downtrend line, as well as above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages, thus confirming 3 bullish signals. short term.

However, we also note that the 1.1820 / 30 area has ended several rebounds for almost 2 weeks. Thus, the EUR USD pair has yet to cross this threshold to confirm the bullish outlook.

If it succeeds, the probability of a rise in directions of 1.22 will increase. This represents upside potential of around 400 pips from the current price. Note, however, that other potential short term resistances can be found at 1.1850, 1.1880 and 1.19.

Indeed, as seen on the daily chart above, the EUR / USD pair took support on the lower bound of a long-term triangle to display its current rebound. If the movement continues towards the upper bound, this will suggest a target towards 1.22.

Of course, before that, the threshold of 1.20 could also offer some resistance.

Finally, in the event of the Euro Dollar falling on the Forex this Tuesday, we will take into account an immediate support at 1.118, before a much greater support threshold towards 1.1750, a threshold below which 1.17 will then probably be targeted by traders.

EUR / USD is recovering slightly and is approaching the 1.1800 level

The EUR / USD is heading towards the end of a four-day series of losses.
The US dollar index broke below 93.00 in the US session.
The risk-taking market environment makes it difficult for the USD to find demand.
After spending most of the day in a relatively tight range above 1.1750, the EUR / USD gained traction during the US hours of trading and was last traded at 1.1796, up 0.15% for the day.

DXY turns around – Wall Street in rally mode

In the absence of high-quality macro data releases and fundamental developments, the perception of risk continues to influence the market valuation of the USD. At the start of the day, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reached 93.19, its highest level since the beginning of April and did not allow the EUR / USD to recover.

While the most important indices on Wall Street continued Tuesday’s impressive upturn and opened in positive territory on Wednesday, the greenback lost strength. The renewed USD weakness is reflected in the DXY, which fell 0.1% over the course of the day to 92.86.

On Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision and publish the monetary policy decision.

Ahead of this event, “the recent announcement by the ECB – that purchases under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) will continue at a much faster pace in the coming quarter than in the first few months of this year – reinforces our view that the ECB will remain very accommodative for much longer, “said Lee Sue Ann, economist at UOB Group.

El-Erian fears the Fed misjudges the risk of inflation

The US Federal Reserve considers the rise in US consumer prices to be a temporary phenomenon. Market expert Mohamed El-Erian fears that the central bank is too relaxed about the inflation risk.

The inflation rates are increasing in the industrialized countries, the price increase is particularly strong in the USA. Consumer prices there climbed to five percent in May, the highest annual rate in almost 13 years. Producer prices also rose by 6.6 percent. This makes many investors nervous – in contrast to other observers. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) considers the sharp rise in the inflation rate to be a temporary phenomenon. Mohamed El-Erian, on the other hand, chief economic advisor at Allianz Insurance, is more critical of the whole thing. “Every day I see evidence that the inflation is not temporary,” he said according to the portal “finanzen.net” to the television channel “CNBC”.

The market expert expresses concerns that the Fed could fall into a fatal deficit, which it will then have to frantically eliminate. “History makes you very uneasy when you end up in a world where the Fed has to catch up,” says El-Erian. He assumes grave consequences if the central bank fails to take action in time. If necessary, the monetary authorities would have to adjust their monetary policy abruptly and raise interest rates earlier than planned. The Fed currently wants to increase the key interest rate in two steps by 2023. “If you were to actually look at the inflation figures, you would begin to have serious doubts about how fleeting the inflation is,” stresses market expert El-Erian.

Temporary imbalance

As long as the Fed holds on to its belief that inflation is a transitory phenomenon, that belief would matter to markets. A large part of the price increases recently occurred in industries that are of enormous importance for the recovery of the US economy, reports “finanzen.net”. This includes the prices for used cars, air travel and hotel accommodation. The Fed justifies the increases with a temporary imbalance between supply and demand.